Structural Tier
The current pivot zone spans 325.81 – 345.34. The closing price of 343.91 is within the pivot zone.
Apple Inc. AAPLStock Model Assessment
NASDAQ · Information Technology · Assessment based on the October 26, 2026 close · Assessment period 20 trading days · Data as of 2026-10-26 ET
The current pivot zone spans 325.81 – 345.34. The closing price of 343.91 is within the pivot zone.
Closing Price343.91Previous day 347.73 −1.10%
Lower Bound of Pivot Zone325.81Current price is 5.56% above the lower boundary
ATR141.86%Two-year percentile 24%
52-Week Range243 – 352Distance from high −2.2%
Historical sample statistics: sample size N=309; these do not represent future outcomes.
Reading route
Three-layer assessment
Three-Tier Determination
Multi-Framework Tier
Of nine independent methods, three are neutral and six are positive. Trend, position, and momentum categories are all aligned to the upside.
Weekly Tier
Weekly GMMA shows bullish separation, with the close above the weekly MA40 at 298.27, in the same direction as the daily trend. The weekly-state conditional test (shifted control) falls at the 34th percentile and provides no additional directional information.
Historical Sample Statistics Layer
The current fingerprint occurred 309 times in 5,488 observations. Its 20-day sample mean is +2.37%, below the full-sample baseline of +2.54%, and the random-control test falls at the 38th percentile. The fingerprint provides no forward-looking information.
Path Test
For the same sample and observation period, the sample-weighted means under the three bullish-scenario frameworks range from +0.11R to +0.12R; those under the two bearish-scenario frameworks range from −0.29R to −0.15R.
Research source:Original report · 2026-10-26
Multiple timeframes
segments and pivot-zone demarcation, used to define range boundaries and structural invalidation points.
The current pivot zone comprises three strokes, spanning 325.81 – 345.34, with a volatility high/low of 351.73 / 300.57. The closing price of 343.91 is 18.10 dollars above the lower boundary of the pivot zone.
Four independent methodologies — trend, position, momentum, and volume — each with its own independent verification basis, not referencing one another.
Framework readings, basis date 2026-10-26
MethodologyReadingDetermination
GMMA Guppy Moving Average
Short group 341.84–345.24, entirely above the long group at 329.59–337.45
Bullish separation
Moving Averages
MA20 339.18 MA50 330.23 MA200 294.54
All three lines are above
Anchored to VWAP
Annual anchor 292.59 (+17.5%) Quarterly anchor 340.50 (+1.0%) 52-week-low anchor 294.35 (+16.8%)
Above the year anchor and quarter anchor
Volume-Price Distribution, 120 Days
VAL 278.82 POC 312.62 VAH 345.10
Above POC
Donchian Channel
20-day 325.81–351.73 55-day 300.57–351.73
Sitting in the middle of the 20-day channel
Volume Z-Score
Current day +0.27 Maximum over the past five days +0.65
Advancing on low volume
Relative Strength vs SPY
20-day +1.7% 60-day +8.7% 120-day +15.0%
Leading across all three windows
Residual Deviation
beta 0.56, five-day residual z +0.11
Has not reached the oversold zone, z < −1.5
Dual Breakout
02-06 model marker 277.36, descending trendline slope −0.538/day, horizontal resistance 277.09
+24.0% relative to the model marker price
Of nine methods, three are neutral and six are positive.
Trend, position, relative strength, and structure are recalculated on the weekly timeframe to define the higher-timeframe context for the daily readings.
Weekly bars use the close of the last trading day of each week, covering 1,139 weeks. The current week is incomplete; its final bar temporarily uses the basis-date close.
Weekly readings, basis date 2026-10-26
MethodologyReadingDetermination
GMMA Guppy moving average (weekly)
Short group 329.48–343.78, entirely above the long group at 290.20–313.56
Bullish separation
Moving average (weekly)
MA10 335.46 MA40 298.27; MA40 is rising relative to four weeks earlier
Both lines have moved above
Donchian channel, 26 weeks
273.51–351.73
Approaching the upper edge of the 26-week range
Relative strength vs SPY (weekly)
26-week +16.2% 52-week +14.2%
Both windows lead
Weekly pivot zone
245.07 – 275.62, formed by three strokes
24.8% above the upper boundary of the pivot zone
Weekly GMMA shows bullish separation, with the close above the weekly MA40. Daily GMMA shows bullish separation, with the close above MA200. Trends in both time frames point upward. The latest weekly stroke is upward: it starts on 2026-04-02 (245.07) and ends on 2026-09-25 (345.34), a change of +40.9%. The reference-date close is −0.4% relative to the endpoint.
Condition definition: weekly GMMA shows bullish separation and the close is above the weekly MA40. Each trading day uses only weekly information available on that date; an incomplete week temporarily uses that day's close. Sample period 2005-01-03 to 2026-10-26, with qualifying observations on 3,836 days.
Weekly state condition test: subsequent 20-day price changes
Sample segmentNumber of days meeting the conditionState-day meanSame-segment benchmarkDifference
Full sample
3,836
▲ +2.35%
▲ +2.54%
▼ −0.19%
First half 2005-01 to 2015-11
1,883
▲ +2.69%
▲ +2.90%
▼ −0.21%
Second half, 2015-11 to 2026-10
1,953
▲ +2.01%
▲ +2.22%
▼ −0.21%
Shifted-control test (shifting the entire state sequence ×400 times while preserving state persistence): the full-sample mean falls at the 34th percentile.
The weekly state provides no additional directional information; the readings in this section only define the context in which the daily is situated.
Sample statistics
For the same sample and observation period, the sample-weighted means under the three bullish-scenario frameworks range from +0.11R to +0.12R; those under the two bearish-scenario frameworks range from −0.29R to −0.15R.
Encode the current state as a fingerprint, test its distribution of subsequent price changes in historical samples, and compare maximum adverse movement, maximum favorable movement and the width of the hypothetical invalidation boundary.
Fingerprint definition: bullish GMMA + close above the quarter-anchored VWAP + 60-day relative strength ahead of SPY + volume z ≥ 1. Sample period 2005-01-03 to 2026-10-26, covering 5,488 daily bars, with matching observations on 309 days.
Subsequent price changes on fingerprint days, compared with the full-sample benchmark
Observation periodMean on fingerprint daysFull-sample meanDifferenceShare of positive outcomes on fingerprint daysShare of positive outcomes in the full sample
1 days
▲ +0.25%
▲ +0.13%
▲ +0.12%
55.0%
53.1%
5 days
▲ +0.76%
▲ +0.63%
▲ +0.13%
62.1%
58.0%
10 days
▲ +0.96%
▲ +1.27%
▼ −0.30%
56.3%
59.9%
20 days
▲ +2.37%
▲ +2.54%
▼ −0.17%
64.1%
63.4%
Random-control test (drawing the same sample size ×400 times): the 20-day mean falls at the 38th percentile, with no statistical difference from random sampling. When relaxed to three components (N=2,586) and two components (N=3,145), the differences are −0.16% and −0.01%, with percentiles of 14% and 56%, respectively.
The distributions for fingerprint days and the full sample overlap substantially. Across the four observation periods, the 20-day sample-weighted mean is below the baseline, while the share of positive observations is 0.7 percentage points higher.This fingerprint provides no directional information.
Path statistics — tracked over 20 trading days starting from the next day's open
PercentileMaximum adverse excursion MAEMaximum favorable excursion MFE
10th percentile
▼ −12.84%
—
30th percentile
▼ −6.61%
—
Median
▼ −3.72%
▲ +5.43%
70th percentile
—
▲ +8.75%
90th percentile
—
▲ +14.09%
MAE measures adverse movement for the bullish scenario; MFE measures adverse movement for the bearish scenario. The invalidation boundary width is shown alongside the corresponding directional percentile for research comparison.
Distribution of sample-weighted means for the same sample and observation period
DirectionNumber of parameter setsSample-weighted mean rangeAssumptions corresponding to the upper end of the mean range (not a basis for selection)Upper bound of the sample-weighted mean
Bullish scenario
3
+0.11R to +0.12R
Invalidation boundary 300.57 / Comparison boundary 362.60
+0.12R
Bear scenario
2
−0.29R to −0.15R
Invalidation boundary 374.02 / Comparison boundary 300.57
−0.15R
The asymmetry comes from the stock's unconditional 20-day drift of +2.54% and its 63.4% share of positive observations. This baseline is used only to interpret the historical differences between the two scenarios.
Invalidation boundaryComparison boundaryBoundary distance ratioComparison boundary reached firstInvalidation boundary reached firstNot touched within 20 daysSample-weighted mean
325.81
362.60
1.03
45.3%
35.6%
19.1%
+0.11R
300.57
362.60
0.43
49.5%
9.1%
41.4%
+0.12R
300.57
374.02
0.69
29.8%
10.0%
60.2%
+0.11R
Sample-weighted mean = boundary distance ratio × comparison-boundary-first rate − 1R × invalidation-boundary-first rate, excluding transaction costs and slippage.
Invalidation boundaryComparison boundaryBoundary distance ratioComparison boundary reached firstInvalidation boundary reached firstNot touched within 20 daysSample-weighted mean
362.60
300.57
2.32
9.1%
49.5%
41.4%
−0.29R
374.02
300.57
1.44
10.0%
29.8%
60.2%
−0.15R
Both frameworks have negative sample-weighted means. Cost assumptions for the bearish scenario and transaction costs are not included.
Evidence and counterevidence
Using 343.91 as the scenario baseline, each path in the 309 fingerprint observations is assessed to determine which level is reached first.
Supporting arguments
- The lower boundary of the pivot zone at 325.81 has not been broken; the current structure remains within its valid range.
- The 52-week-low anchored VWAP at 294.35 is 14.4% below the current price, forming the next support level in the price-volume assessment.
- The VAL of the 120-day volume profile is 278.82, well below the current price. The volume-profile structure has not entered a breakdown zone.
- The means for fingerprint days are positive over the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day observation periods (+0.76%, +0.96% and +2.37%). The shares of positive observations are 62.1%, 56.3% and 64.1%, respectively, all above one half.
- The full-sample 20-day mean is +2.54%, with 63.4% positive observations. This stock has shown positive drift over the long term.
Counterarguments
- The five-day residual z is +0.11 and has not entered an oversold range, leaving no statistical basis for mean reversion.
Bullish-scenario path test Scenario baseline 343.91
Invalidation boundary · Comparison boundary · Boundary distance ratio · Comparison boundary reached first · Invalidation boundary reached first · Not touched within 20 days · Sample-weighted mean · 325.81 · 362.60 · 1.03 · 45.3% · 35.6% · 19.1% · +0.11R · 300.57 · 362.60 · 0.43 · 49.5% · 9.1% · 41.4% · +0.12R · 300.57 · 374.02 · 0.69 · 29.8% · 10.0% · 60.2% · +0.11R · Sample-weighted mean = boundary distance ratio × comparison-boundary-first rate − 1R × invalidation-boundary-first rate, excluding transaction costs and slippage.
All three frameworks have positive sample-weighted means. For the historical sample with an invalidation boundary of 300.57 and a comparison boundary of 362.60, the sample-weighted mean is +0.12R. All three are historical statistics and are not a basis for selecting a framework.
Using 343.91 as the scenario baseline, with the same sample and observation period.
Counterarguments
- The fingerprint shows no forward-looking information in 5,488 observations, with the random-control test at the 38th percentile. The directional assessment has no statistical support.
- The stock's unconditional 20-day drift is +2.54%. This positive drift runs counter to the bearish scenario.
- The current ATR percentage sits at the 24th percentile over two years; directional positions taken during a low-volatility compression state face elevated regime-shift risk.
Bearish-scenario path test Scenario baseline 343.91
Invalidation boundary · Comparison boundary · Boundary distance ratio · Comparison boundary reached first · Invalidation boundary reached first · Not touched within 20 days · Sample-weighted mean · 362.60 · 300.57 · 2.32 · 9.1% · 49.5% · 41.4% · −0.29R · 374.02 · 300.57 · 1.44 · 10.0% · 29.8% · 60.2% · −0.15R · Both frameworks have negative sample-weighted means. Cost assumptions for the bearish scenario and transaction costs are not included.
Invalidation conditions
The following are conditions for a status change, not position guidance.
- Trend reversal The daily close falls below 339.18 (MA20) and the GMMA short group crosses below the long group. The position and trend tiers then turn negative together, requiring recalculation of all frameworks as part of an objective reassessment.
- Structural breakdown The daily close falls below 300.57 (the Donchian 55-day lower boundary) and volume z ≥ 1. In the 120-day volume profile, 26.8% of volume lies below this price. The research-hypothesis invalidation boundary is above 325.81, with a width of 8.4%, close to the 67th percentile of maximum favorable excursion on fingerprint days. This setting must be retested on the trigger date; no commitment is made in advance.
- Volatility regime shiftThe two-year percentile of ATR percentage rises above 50%. The current compression state of 24% does not fit the existing distribution parameters; all path statistics must be recalculated under the new regime.
- Weekly trend reversal The weekly close falls below 298.27 (weekly MA40, using its value for that week). The weekly-tier assessment then changes, and the context for the daily readings must be redefined.
The following are conditions for a status change, not position guidance.
- Trend reversal The daily close falls below 339.18 (MA20) and the GMMA short group crosses below the long group. The position and trend tiers then turn negative together, requiring recalculation of all frameworks as part of an objective reassessment.
- Structural breakdown The daily close falls below 300.57 (the Donchian 55-day lower boundary) and volume z ≥ 1. In the 120-day volume profile, 26.8% of volume lies below this price. The research-hypothesis invalidation boundary is above 325.81, with a width of 8.4%, close to the 67th percentile of maximum favorable excursion on fingerprint days. This setting must be retested on the trigger date; no commitment is made in advance.
- Volatility regime shiftThe two-year percentile of ATR percentage rises above 50%. The current compression state of 24% does not fit the existing distribution parameters; all path statistics must be recalculated under the new regime.
- Weekly trend reversal The weekly close falls below 298.27 (weekly MA40, using its value for that week). The weekly-tier assessment then changes, and the context for the daily readings must be redefined.
Research source:Original report · 2026-10-26
For the next session, these dated objective conditions frame the checks on price, volume and weekly state. The source requires recalculation when a condition is triggered. The source does not provide the next session’s event timetable; no event outcome is inferred.
The following are conditions for a status change, not position guidance.
- Trend reversal The daily close falls below 339.18 (MA20) and the GMMA short group crosses below the long group. The position and trend tiers then turn negative together, requiring recalculation of all frameworks as part of an objective reassessment.
- Structural breakdown The daily close falls below 300.57 (the Donchian 55-day lower boundary) and volume z ≥ 1. In the 120-day volume profile, 26.8% of volume lies below this price. The research-hypothesis invalidation boundary is above 325.81, with a width of 8.4%, close to the 67th percentile of maximum favorable excursion on fingerprint days. This setting must be retested on the trigger date; no commitment is made in advance.
- Volatility regime shiftThe two-year percentile of ATR percentage rises above 50%. The current compression state of 24% does not fit the existing distribution parameters; all path statistics must be recalculated under the new regime.
- Weekly trend reversal The weekly close falls below 298.27 (weekly MA40, using its value for that week). The weekly-tier assessment then changes, and the context for the daily readings must be redefined.
Research source:Original report · 2026-10-26
Cross-validation
ItemStatus
Cross-checks
Data unavailable: this source does not provide event distance, sample probability intervals or liquidity comparison fields.
Method and limitations
- This is a single-stock event study. Overlapping observation windows reduce the effective sample size below the nominal 309, inflating statistical significance.
- The sample spans multiple volatility and interest-rate environments since 2005, without sub-period robustness testing.
- This assessment uses only price and volume data and does not incorporate earnings calendars, regulatory or litigation developments, or industry policy changes. Such events can produce price moves exceeding three times ATR within a single trading day and invalidate all technical parameter sets simultaneously.
- The path test uses daily highs and lows to determine whether price levels were reached, without resolving their sequence within a day. If both the invalidation and comparison boundaries are reached on the same day, the invalidation boundary takes precedence, a conservative assumption.
- The sample-weighted mean excludes transaction costs, slippage and the bearish scenario's cost assumptions.
- The weekly state persists for weeks to months, and adjacent qualifying days are highly correlated, so the effective sample size is far below the nominal day count. The shift-control test preserves the persistence of the state but does not eliminate this limitation.
- This week has not yet closed; the final week's figure is a placeholder using the as-of date's close. Before the weekly close is confirmed, the weekly reading and structural classification may change.