Research reports / Daily brief

Closing Brief

2026-10-26 · Full-day summary, post-market earnings, next trading day highlights, updated 16:45 ET

Tracked market ETFs were all higher: SPY +0.56%; QQQ +1.04%; DIA +0.18%; IWM +0.45%. These are ETF returns, not index levels. Volatility: VIX 18.39 (-5.45%). The RSP-minus-SPY return spread is -0.33 percentage points, comparing equal-weight and cap-weight ETFs rather than the share of advancing stocks.

SPY▲ +0.56%765.37 762–768
QQQ▲ +1.04%712.20 706–715
DIA▲ +0.18%522.97 522–526
IWM▲ +0.45%276.99 276–279
VIX18.39-5.45%

Reading route · Headlines → guide → detailed sections

Data: market quotes, company disclosures, and public economic data. The update time is the time this report was written, not the tick-level quote time. Price changes over a period are calculated using verifiable complete trading days or intraday quotes with an observation time; missing items are not treated as zero.

Closing guide

As of 2026-10-26T16:45:06.490748-04:00

Close and breadth

Tracked market ETFs were all higher: SPY +0.56%; QQQ +1.04%; DIA +0.18%; IWM +0.45%. These are ETF returns, not index levels. Volatility: VIX 18.39 (-5.45%). The RSP-minus-SPY return spread is -0.33 percentage points, comparing equal-weight and cap-weight ETFs rather than the share of advancing stocks.

Sector performance

Relative performance within the tracked list: SMH +2.82%; XLC -1.99%. This ranks returns, not weighted market contributions.

Mega-caps and earnings

Relative performance within the tracked list: TSLA +5.21%; META -1.49%. This ranks returns, not weighted market contributions. Price changes in the earnings watchlist: VZ -3.49%; PKX -1.34%; CX -0.10%; SMMT -6.27%; BMRN -0.36%. Price changes alone do not establish an earnings beat or miss.

Data recap

This report lists 2 calendar records, with actual values present for 2. No outcome is inferred for remaining records; see the data table for events, units and expectations.

After-hours watch

Price changes in the earnings watchlist: WELL +0.00%; CDNS +2.25%; NUE +0.00%; PSA +0.00%; HIG +0.04%; CLS +9.17%; CINF +1.52%; BRO +1.01%. Price changes alone do not establish an earnings beat or miss. After-hours prices can change and are not the next session opening prices.

Next session

The next trading session is 2026-10-27; the calendar lists 10 upcoming releases. Earnings watch: V, KO, HSBC, NVS, BA, STX, SPGI, GLW. Tracked markets are currently stronger together. If gains continue, watch whether participation broadens; on a pullback, check whether relative leaders retain their advantage. A single session cannot confirm trend persistence.

⚡ Snapshot ▲ +0.56% SPY Full Day VIX 18.4 Driver: SPY stronger relative to RSP Breadth RSP−SPY -0.33pp Next trading day highlights Earnings: V · KO · HSBC · NVS · BA · ★★ 🇺🇸 08:30 September core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) durable goods orders, month-over-month preliminary reading · ★★ 🇺🇸 08:30 September durable goods orders excluding transportation, month-over-month preliminary reading · CLS · SMMT · VZ · CDNS

Sector heat

SectorToday5D21 trading daysRange RatioConsecutiveBreadth Above 20DMA21-trading-day trend
SMH Semiconductors · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+2.82%
-1.2%
-10.7%
0.8×
+2 Days
—
Volatility: 34%
XLK Technology · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+1.52%
+0.2%
-5.1%
0.9×
+2 Days
51%
Volatility: 24%
XLI Industrials · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+1.19%
+0.2%
-2.0%
0.7×
—
58%
Volatility: 14%
XLY Consumer Discretionary · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+1.02%
-0.2%
+3.3%
1.0×
—
72%
Volatility: 15%
XLRE Real Estate · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+0.54%
+2.7%
+3.0%
0.7×
+3 Days
83%
Volatility: 15%
XLE Energy · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+0.30%
+2.7%
+12.3%
0.8×
+2 Days
86%
Volatility: 20%
XLF Financials · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+0.18%
+1.7%
+2.2%
0.5×
—
80%
Volatility: 13%
XLB Materials · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
+0.14%
+0.8%
+3.2%
0.5×
—
75%
Volatility: 13%
XLU Utilities · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
-0.09%
+2.9%
+7.7%
0.5×
-2 Days
88%
Volatility: 17%
XLV Health Care · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
-0.23%
+2.1%
+5.0%
0.9×
—
88%
Volatility: 19%
XLP Consumer Staples · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
-0.37%
+0.9%
+7.2%
0.9×
-2 Days
91%
Volatility: 20%
XLC Communication Services · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
-1.99%
-5.7%
-8.1%
1.0×
-4 days
40%
Volatility: 17%

Sector Strength and Volatility (Full Day) Strength/weakness × market breadth · Range ratio = marked-day range/prior-trading-day ATR14; volatility = prior full 20 days · Trend = 21 trading days (green dots = high, red dots = low)

🔺 Relative price performance: SPY stronger relative to RSP · SPY +0.56% vs equal-weight RSP +0.23% (difference +0.33pp) · Mega8 simple average +0.92% (not index contribution)

🏭 Industry × Style

🏭 Industry Breakdown (Full Day) Top 5/bottom 5 · Divergence within SPDR major sectors · Range ratio = marked-day range/prior-trading-day ATR14; volatility = prior full 20 days

🎛 Style Dashboard Bar = Ranked by Day's Strength · Bottom Row = Growth vs. Value Spread

🚀 Stock Movers Weight · Leading Gainers (≥$2B) · Leading Decliners

Heavyweight Stocks

Sector performance

Relative performance within the tracked list: SMH +2.82%; XLC -1.99%. This ranks returns, not weighted market contributions.

Industry detail

Today5D21 trading daysVolatilityRange Ratio21-trading-day trend
SOXX Semiconductors · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▲ +3.10%
-2.0%
-14.1%
39%
0.9×
XOP Oil and Gas Exploration and Production · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▲ +1.52%
+2.7%
+12.9%
24%
1.2×
LIT Lithium Batteries · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▲ +0.97%
-5.2%
-11.2%
23%
0.7×
JETS Airlines · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▲ +0.88%
+3.3%
-8.8%
26%
0.5×
GDX Gold Mining · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▲ +0.82%
-6.3%
-12.8%
42%
0.8×
XRT Retail · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▼ -0.26%
+0.7%
+6.0%
19%
1.1×
REMX Rare Earths · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▼ -0.39%
-3.1%
-22.4%
27%
0.6×
TAN Solar · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▼ -0.61%
-1.3%
-7.5%
29%
0.8×
ITB Homebuilders · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▼ -0.90%
+5.8%
+0.5%
32%
0.8×
XME Metals and Mining · Period ending 2026-10-26, complete daily candlesticks
▼ -0.92%
-5.3%
-11.4%
30%
0.8×

Industry returns describe relative performance within this report, not contribution to the broad market. A single session does not confirm a persistent trend.

Style and market leaders

FactorToday5D21 trading days21-trading-day trend
Momentum MTUM
+1.92%-0.4%-7.5%
Value VLUE
+0.75%+1.0%-3.5%
Low Volatility USMV
+0.46%+2.1%+5.2%
Quality QUAL
+0.33%-0.7%-0.0%
Growth − Value IVW−IVEValue leadership-1.94%-3.2%-6.7%
NVDA NVIDIA CorporationTechnology+2.3%216.00
MSFT Microsoft CorporationTechnology+1.5%532.60
AAPL Apple Inc.Technology-1.1%343.91
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.Consumer Discretionary+0.1%249.09
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.Communications-1.4%316.80
META Meta Platforms, Inc.Communications-1.5%630.56
TSLA Tesla, Inc.Consumer Discretionary+5.2%391.62
AVGO Broadcom Inc.Technology+2.2%329.17

Watchlist

Observation date: 2026-10-23

VEEV
Status
Condition met
Last price
322.91
Trigger price
322.91
Distance to trigger
– +0.0%
63-day price change
▲ +66.1%
Remaining armed days
5
vs SMA50
▲ +16.6%
CRL
Status
Condition met
Last price
345.24
Trigger price
345.24
Distance to trigger
– +0.0%
63-day price change
▲ +53.9%
Remaining armed days
15
vs SMA50
▲ +17.5%
APA
Status
Included in watchlist
Last price
51.90
Trigger price
51.90
Distance to trigger
– +0.0%
63-day price change
▲ +50.1%
Remaining armed days
10
vs SMA50
▲ +16.8%
RVTY
Status
Included in watchlist
Last price
158.70
Trigger price
158.70
Distance to trigger
– +0.0%
63-day price change
▲ +46.8%
Remaining armed days
10
vs SMA50
▲ +13.3%
MPC
Status
Readiness recorded
Last price
457.20
Trigger price
484.92
Distance to trigger
▲ +6.1%
63-day price change
▲ +46.8%
Remaining armed days
0
vs SMA50
▲ +11.7%
CRM
Status
Readiness recorded
Last price
248.53
Trigger price
250.24
Distance to trigger
▲ +0.7%
63-day price change
▲ +43.4%
Remaining armed days
15
vs SMA50
▲ +5.9%
CRWD
Status
Readiness recorded
Last price
257.57
Trigger price
278.86
Distance to trigger
▲ +8.3%
63-day price change
▲ +43.0%
Remaining armed days
5
vs SMA50
▲ +9.7%
VLO
Status
Readiness recorded
Last price
419.16
Trigger price
459.78
Distance to trigger
▲ +9.7%
63-day price change
▲ +38.0%
Remaining armed days
0
vs SMA50
▲ +6.8%
PSX
Status
Included in watchlist
Last price
283.13
Trigger price
297.29
Distance to trigger
▲ +5.0%
63-day price change
▲ +37.0%
Remaining armed days
0
vs SMA50
▲ +7.9%

Earnings reactions

VZ Verizon Communications Inc Communications
Full-Day Reaction-3.5%
Session
Pre-market
Market Cap
186B
Prior-year EPS
$1.21
PKX POSCO HOLDINGS INC. Materials
Full-Day Reaction-1.3%
Session
—
Market Cap
17B
Prior-year EPS
$0.94
CX Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Materials
Full-Day Reaction-0.1%
Session
Pre-market
Market Cap
15B
Prior-year EPS
$0.16
SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. Healthcare
Full-Day Reaction-6.3%
Session
—
Market Cap
12B
Prior-year EPS
($0.31)
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical In Healthcare
Full-Day Reaction-0.4%
Session
—
Market Cap
11B
Prior-year EPS
($0.08)
WELL Welltower Inc. Real Estate
Post-market reaction+0.0%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
171B
Prior-year EPS
$1.34
CDNS Cadence Design Systems, In Technology
Post-market reaction+2.3%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
87B
Prior-year EPS
$1.51
NUE Nucor Corporation
Post-market reaction+0.0%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
59B
Prior-year EPS
$2.63
PSA Public Storage Real Estate
Post-market reaction+0.0%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
58B
Prior-year EPS
$4.31
HIG The Hartford Insurance Gro Financials
Post-market reaction+0.0%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
37B
Prior-year EPS
$3.78
CLS Celestica, Inc. Technology
Post-market reaction+9.2%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
30B
Prior-year EPS
$1.44
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corpo Financials
Post-market reaction+1.5%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
27B
Prior-year EPS
$2.85
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. Financials
Post-market reaction+1.0%
Session
After hours
Market Cap
24B
Prior-year EPS
$1.05

Mega-caps and earnings

Relative performance within the tracked list: TSLA +5.21%; META -1.49%. This ranks returns, not weighted market contributions. Price changes in the earnings watchlist: VZ -3.49%; PKX -1.34%; CX -0.10%; SMMT -6.27%; BMRN -0.36%. Price changes alone do not establish an earnings beat or miss.

Events and forecasts

Today's data review × Next trading day's data × Special events (next 7 days) ★4-5: key events. ★1-3: secondary events. Importance scores reflect the report’s assessment of relevance.

ETTomorrowImportant★★★★Data / EventEvent 🛢 Israeli General Election
According to Xinhua, Israel plans to conduct legislative elections before October 27, 2026 to elect 120 members of the twenty-sixth parliament.
ETTomorrow 20:00Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇰🇷 SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Call
The SK Hynix call is scheduled for October 28 9:00 AM KST (Korea Standard Time), corresponding to Beijing time October 28 8:00 AM
ET10-28 Wed 13:00Important★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Apple's Second October Event: First Touchscreen MacBook and New iPad mini to Launch Together
This Apple event, "Pro and Tell", is held in Los Angeles, U.S., and is expected to feature new Mac and iPad mini models. Its first touchscreen MacBook Pro (with an OLED display and a "Dynamic Island" interface
ET10-28 Wed 14:30Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh to conduct monetary policy press conference
The Fed's decision is due in the early hours of October 29. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank also conduct meetings the same week, and all three are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The wording of the press conferences by Warsh and Kazuo Ueda will be key, and clues pointing to a December rate hike need close monitoring.
ET10-28 Wed 16:30Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Google Q3 Earnings Call
Google (Alphabet) October 28, 2026 1:30 PM PT (Pacific Time) October 29, 2026 (Thu) 04:30 Calendar year 2026 Q3 earnings report
ET10-28 Wed 17:00Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Microsoft Q3 Earnings Call
Microsoft October 28, 2026 2:30 PM PT (Pacific Time) October 29, 2026 (Thu) 05:30 Corresponds to its fiscal year 2027 first fiscal quarter (Q1) financial
ET10-28 Wed 21:00Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇰🇷 Samsung Electronics Q3 Earnings Call
Samsung Electronics 2026 Q3 full results and earnings call are scheduled for Thursday, October 29, at 10:00 a.m. Korea Standard Time (09:00 a.m. Beijing time).
ET10-29 Thu 17:00Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Intel Q3 Earnings Call
According to official news published on the Intel IR official calendar page:
ET10-29 Thu 17:00Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Amazon Q3 Earnings Call
According to a press release published on the Amazon IR official event page:
ET10-29 Thu 23:30Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
ET10-30 FriImportant★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 Anthropic plans to publish its prospectus as early as late October
According to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, Anthropic plans to publish its prospectus as early as late October and complete its IPO in mid-November, with a roadshow for institutional investors expected to start in the week of November 9. The people familiar also cautioned that the above plan and timing
ET10-30 Fri 02:30Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to conduct monetary policy press conference
The Fed's decision is due in the early hours of October 29. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank also conduct meetings the same week, and all three are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The wording of the press conferences by Warsh and Kazuo Ueda will be key, and clues pointing to a December rate hike need close monitoring.
ET10-30 Fri 05:45Important★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇯🇵 Kioxia Earnings Call
Kioxia\tOctober 30, 2026 18:45 JST (Japan Standard Time)\tOctober 30, 2026 (Friday) 17:45\tCorresponds to its fiscal year 2026 Q2 (Q2) earnings report
ET10-31 SaturdayImportant★★★★Data / EventEvent 🇨🇳 late October, Apple's China-market Apple Intelligence launches in beta (integrating Alibaba's Qwen)
According to reports, Apple's China-market Apple Intelligence has launched in beta, integrating Alibaba's Qwen and excluding Siri AI. The path for Apple AI to land in China has taken shape, which has substantive significance for the distribution landscape of domestic AI applications and for the commercialization of Alibaba's models.
ET11-01 Sunday 01:00Important★★★Data / EventEvent 🇺🇸 North America begins winter time, delaying US stock trading by one hour
North America begins winter time. Trading hours in US and Canadian financial markets and release times for economic data will be one hour later than during daylight saving time.
ETSecondary 17 items
ET08:30Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 September Chicago Fed National Activity Index Actual0.07Expected-0.1Previous value-0.04
ET10:30Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 October Dallas Fed Business Activity Index Actual9.8Expected—Previous value9.8
ET2026-10-27 08:30Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 September core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) durable goods orders, month-over-month preliminary reading ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected0.7Previous value1.6
ET2026-10-27 08:30Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 September durable goods orders excluding transportation, month-over-month preliminary reading ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected0.6Previous value0.2
ET2026-10-27 08:30Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 September durable goods orders, month-over-month preliminary reading ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected1.4Previous value-0.1
ET2026-10-27 09:00Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 August S&P/CS 20-city home price index, year-over-year ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected2.6Previous value2.47
ET2026-10-27 09:00Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 August S&P/CS 20-city seasonally adjusted home price index, month-over-month ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected0.3Previous value0.32
ET2026-10-27 09:00Important★★Data / Event🇺🇸 August FHFA house price index, month-over-month ActualTo Be AnnouncedExpected—Previous value0.3

Today's data review × Next trading day's data × Special events (next 7 days) ★4-5: key events. ★1-3: secondary events. Importance scores reflect the report’s assessment of relevance.

2026-10-27 10:00★★🇺🇸 September new home sales, month-over-month To Be Announced-6.46.4
2026-10-27 10:00★★🇺🇸 September new home sales (ten thousand households) To Be Announced6568.4
2026-10-27 10:00★★🇺🇸 October Conference Board consumer expectations index To Be Announced—63.6
2026-10-27 10:00★★🇺🇸 October Conference Board present situation index To Be Announced—109.3
10-29 Thu★★★🇪🇺 EU-Canada Summit
10-29 Thu★★★🇨🇳 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit (Shenzhen)
11-01 Sunday★★★🛢 OPEC+ meeting
11-01 Sunday 23:02★★★🇨🇳 The 2026 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will be held from November 2 to 5
11-02 Monday★★★🇨🇳 The 2026 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit opens

Macro event market-price-implied probabilities

EventFOMC meeting contract · unchanged rate · PolymarketPolymarket92.7%Kalshi—Change (pp)—
EventFOMC meeting contract · unchanged rate · KalshiPolymarket—Kalshi91.5%Change (pp)—
EventFOMC meeting contract · hike · PolymarketPolymarket7.5%Kalshi—Change (pp)—
EventFOMC meeting contract · hike · KalshiPolymarket—Kalshi8.5%Change (pp)—

Data releases · market-implied estimates

EventCPI y/y · KalshiRelease date—Polymarket—Kalshi—
EventCore CPI y/y · PolymarketRelease date—Polymarket2.6% 93.5%Kalshi—
EventUnemployment rate · PolymarketRelease date—Polymarket4.2% 42.5%Kalshi—
EventUnemployment rate · KalshiRelease date—Polymarket—Kalshi—
EventNonfarm payroll change (thousand jobs) · KalshiRelease date—Polymarket—Kalshi—

🌡️ Weather → natural gas chain

HDD heating demand 15 days110.7 vs constant value 164.2 (-33%)
Past 7 Days CDD16.9
Tropical SystemNo Tropical System in the Gulf
NG/UNGNG 3.04 (+15.15%) · UNG 9.56 (-0.21%)

📊 Earnings Reaction Full Day × After-Hours

Today's Earnings Stocks Closing Performance

First Reaction to After-Hours Earnings Report

Today's data review × Next trading day's data × Special events (next 7 days) ★4-5: key events. ★1-3: secondary events. Importance scores reflect the report’s assessment of relevance.

Remaining 9 items

🎯 Prediction Market Pricing Reference Polymarket · Kalshi · Market-price-implied probabilities · Quote time 2026-10-26T16:57:10-04:00 ET

Macro event market-price-implied probabilities

Data releases · market-implied estimates

📅 Next trading day Sectors/Stocks to Watch · Earnings · Data

⭐ Next trading day watchlist Sectors = price change + volatility expansion + continuity score · Individual stocks = price moves / earnings / model records combined

SMH

Semiconductors

+2.82%

Leaders

XLC

Communications

-1.99%

Laggards

Declined for 4 consecutive days

5-day -5.7%

XLK

Technology

+1.52%

Leaders

XLI

Industrials

+1.19%

Leaders

CLS

Celestica Inc. · Technology

+9.2%

Post-market earnings

SMMT

Summit Therapeutics Inc. · Healthcare

-6.3%

Today's Earnings

VZ

Verizon Communications Inc. · Communication Services

-3.5%

Today's Earnings

CDNS

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. · Technology

+2.3%

Post-market earnings

CINF

Cincinnati Financial Corporation · Financials

+1.5%

Post-market earnings

PKX

POSCO Holdings Inc. · Materials

-1.3%

Today's Earnings

BRO

Brown & Brown, Inc. · Financials

+1.0%

Post-market earnings

BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. · Health Care

-0.4%

Today's Earnings

📅 Next trading day highlights

Earnings: V, KO, HSBC, NVS, BA, STX, SPGI, GLW

🇺🇸 Data/Speeches: ★★ 08:30 September core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) durable goods orders, month-over-month preliminary reading ★★ 08:30 September durable goods orders excluding transportation, month-over-month preliminary reading ★★ 08:30 September durable goods orders, month-over-month preliminary reading ★★ 09:00 August S&P/CS 20-city home price index, year-over-year ★★ 09:00 August S&P/CS 20-city seasonally adjusted home price index, month-over-month ★★ 09:00 August FHFA house price index, month-over-month ★★ 10:00 September new home sales, month-over-month ★★ 10:00 September new home sales (ten thousand households) ★★ 10:00 October Conference Board consumer expectations index ★★ 10:00 October Conference Board present situation index

Weather-Energy Chain

🌡️ Weather → natural gas chain

2026-10-26~2026-11-10 · Population-weighted, 15 cities · Open-Meteo/NHC

  1. Next session The next trading session is 2026-10-27; the calendar lists 10 upcoming releases. Earnings watch: V , KO , HSBC , NVS , BA , STX , SPGI , GLW . Tracked markets are currently stronger together. If gains continue, watch whether participation broadens; on a pullback, check whether relative leaders retain their advantage. A single session cannot confirm trend persistence.

Next session

The next trading session is 2026-10-27; the calendar lists 10 upcoming releases. Earnings watch: V, KO, HSBC, NVS, BA, STX, SPGI, GLW. Tracked markets are currently stronger together. If gains continue, watch whether participation broadens; on a pullback, check whether relative leaders retain their advantage. A single session cannot confirm trend persistence.

Model state and interpretation

📊 Model Record × Research Observations 📊 Model Records Data pending 🏛️ This Week's House View Research Department verdict, 2026-10-26 Risk Dial 42 /100 (Discretionary Score; 40–60 Neutral; Not a Position Ratio) XLK -1pp SMH -2pp XLV +1pp XLE +2pp XLP +1pp XLI -1pp Style: neutral

Weekly research dated 2026-10-26 ET. Equity-side invalidation conditions: SMH and MTUM reclaiming the 50dma, QQQ 21d turning positive, SMH and XLK the negative assessment is withdrawn; RSP or XLP falling below the 50dma, VIX / VIX 3M rising above 1, defensive rotation can no longer serve as a buffer, among which XLP note WMT P/E (TTM) 43.3, COST the elevated level of 48.3 and the 1d -1.92% pullback (basis: Equity Strategy Research, Liquidity Research, Sector Analyst Consumer & Industrials). Research limitations: rates and credit as_of is 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-23, NFCI is 2026-10-16, CPI and the unemployment rate are monthly values for 2026-09; the equity price as_of is not provided; CPI about +0.65% over 1 months and about +1.12% over 3 months are derived estimates, SA / NSA not provided. This note contains research observations. Not personalized, not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell. No performance is guaranteed.